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| Fig. 1: A diagram of a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle. (Source: Wikimedia Commons) |
Electric cars have transformed from niche, expensive items to practical, economical vehicles. Electric vehicles refer to a whole spectrum of cars from pure electric cars to plug-in hybrids to mild hybrids. Pure electric cars are powered by a battery that is normally located at the base of the car. These cars sometimes also include a small petrol engine that helps power the electric motor. On the other hand, as shown in Fig. 1, plug-in hybrids have a traditional engine and a battery, which both help to turn the wheels. These cars have limited range without use of their traditional engine, and must be plugged in to recharge. Lastly, mild hybrids have traditional engines, but with an abnormally large car battery that allows big vehicles to have small engines. [1] However, even with the large range of choices and reasonable prices, sales for electric cars are quite low. During the first half of 2018, 6% of the cars sold had a plug, but only 0.5% were fully electric. [1] Yet, an explosion in sales is expected over the next half decade. By 2025, Morgan Stanley predicts a 10-15% market share, while Volkswagen predicts a 25% market share. Yet, the market share will not grow until the prices drop and electric cars become more convenient and commonplace.
One of the most common reasons that customers choose conventional cars over electric cars is price. Even though the long-term service costs are less, customers are often thrown by the higher price tag. [1] Electric cars will not have a competitive price until the cost of the powertrain is equal to the cost of owning a car that burns fuel. The powertrain is the motor and other parts that help make the car move. Currently, an electric car's powertrain costs around $16,000 while a traditional car's powertrain costs only $6,000. [2] The discrepancy in price results primarily from the difference in battery. However, considering the trend of rapidly dropping prices for car batteries, analysts expect electric cars to be cheaper than their conventional counterparts by 2024. Car battery manufacturers have increased production and new companies have joined the industry, resulting in a greater supply and lower prices. [2]
Continuing to lower the price of car batteries is dependent on a steady and economical supply of resources. The main resources that are used to make batteries are cobalt, lithium, and graphite. Unfortunately, these resources are only becoming more expensive. The price of cobalt, lithium, and graphite have increased by 115%, 45%, and 35% respectively over the course of this year. [2] Manufacturers are also facing geopolitical complications as land in Chile and China contains almost three fourths of the world's lithium. [2] This backs the prediction that China will lead the world in the rise of electric cars. In addition, the main source of cobalt is located in the Democratic Republic of Congo, an unstable and war-torn country. Thus, companies are searching for other sources of these resources, preferably in less problematic areas. If resources can be regularly bought at cheap prices, battery prices will continue to drop and electric cars will be able to compete with traditional cars.
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| Fig. 2: A Toyota Prius plug-in hybrid charging. (Source: Wikimedia Commons) |
Even if electric cars and traditional cars were the same price, customers are still wary of buying a vehicle that must be charged regularly, as depicted in Fig. 2. Road trips and long commutes suddenly become stressful situations that require extensive planning or a little luck. The average range for an electric vehicle is 190 miles, less than half the average range of a traditional vehicle, 475 miles. [2] Thus, electric cars will not become widespread until an extensive network of charging stations exists. In the United States, there are only around 16,000 charging stations, compared to 112,000 gas stations. Yet, a mix of companies and startups have recognized the growing demand and are installing more charging stations. Volkswagen plans on building at least 2,000 charging stations across America by mid-2019, with hopefully more after. [2] This action results from their legal settlement for installing illegal software in their cars that would help cars evade emission standards.
Charging stations must not only be prevalent, but also they must have high-voltage chargers that can recharge a car quickly and efficiently. Tesla has encountered this issue, as it takes 30 minutes to recharge. [2] The compact has tried to offset the inconvenience by making their charging stations free and building them near malls and restaurants. Nonetheless, the lack of stations in heavily-populated areas still leads to long lines of frustrated drivers. Electric cars will become a more attractive choice when charging becomes a more convenient process.
Before electric cars can truly succeed in this market, buyers must let go of their attachment to the familiar feel, sound, and smell of internal combustion engines. With time, this psychological barrier will fade. But currently, customers have a nostalgic affinity for traditional cars, from the fueling process, to the roaring engines, to the shifting gears. Similarly to how some drivers can not tolerate an automatic transmission vehicle, electric cars take some getting used to. There is an advantage to this transition though; a Tesla S can accelerate from 0 to 60 miles per hour in just 2.3 seconds. [2] This rivals most traditional cars, including Ferraris, Porsches and Lamborghinis. Furthemore, electric cars are calming in their quietness, and clean without fuel or exhaust. If speculative customers are encouraged to take an electric car for a spin, they may be pleasantly surprised. However, this is difficult because many car dealerships exclude electric cars from their bonus schemes. [1] Thus, salespeople often push customers to buy traditional cars. As manufacturing becomes cheaper, charging becomes more convenient, and the feel becomes more mainstream, electric cars will have a greater market share.
© Sophia Kazmierowicz. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.
[1] P. Campbell, "Should You Buy an Electric Car?" Financial Times, 30 Aug 18.
[2] J. Ewing, "What Needs to Happen Before Electric Cars Take Over the World," New York Times, 18 Dec 17.
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