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| Fig. 1: A wind turbine farm made to harvest sustainable energy. (Source: Wikimedia Commons) |
Natural gas is one of the, if not the most central, energy sources in the United States and the world. Heralded as a bridge towards cleaner energy, it has directed energy companies and economies to rely less on coal and think about a greener future. [1] However, some proponents of the natural gas movement argue that the current green energy movement is encouraging too fast a pull away from using natural gas and to transition quickly into environmentally sustainable sources of energy, including wind and solar. [1]
By the end of 2016, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, total proved gas reserves in the United States alone are estimated to be 2642 trillion cubic feet of gross natural gas. [2] With a yearly consumption of about 27.5 Tcf per year, this means that the United States currently has enough gas to sustain our current rate of consumption for roughly 90 more years. [2] As regulations tighten, however, there is no telling when natural gas will eventually be disbanded, even though it is a cleaner form of energy than other fossil fuels. The question we seek to examine is if its more practical to continue on the natural gas consumption trend we currently take advantage of, or if its more economical to switch sources sooner than later.
To put into perspective how much the actual costs line up between natural gas and other fossil fuels, there are a number of reasons why natural gas is superior. For example, a barrel of crude oil can go for as high as $75, as it did in early October, which generally produces around standard 5 MMBtus (an MMBtu converts to 1.055 × 109 joules, in this case 5.275 × 109 joules for a barrel of crude oil). [3] However, natural gas can actually produce at a much cheaper rate for a similar output of energy, with prices going as low as $2.20/MMBtu in 2012. [4] If we were to compare the 5 MMBtus generated from a barrel of crude oil with 5 MBBtus worth of natural gas, we obtain $11 for natural gas vs. $75 for a barrel of oil, roughly a 580% difference. Compared to other fossil fuels, it definitely is quite a bit cheaper, especially in countries that have an abundance of it and can transport it easily, namely North America, Russia, and the Middle East, some of the largest producers of natural gas and oil in the world. [2] Other fossil fuels are somewhat easier to transport and develop for use in other areas, but there is no denying the gap between the cost of oil and natural gas. For countries that happen to have those geographical advantages and surpluses of gas, it makes economic and environmental sense to use those resources.
In this day and age when environmental issues are more pressing than ever, many countries and companies turn to alternative energy sources as a potential solution to combating pollution and increasing sustainability. Solar energy is one of the fastest growing areas in the alternative energy market, mainly because of its fast technological innovation and widespread applications. For instance, China has focused on becoming the world leader in solar energy, having suffered from heavy coal pollution problems for years as the worlds largest polluter. [5] With the countrys well-developed supply-chain and manufacturing practices, they have the capabilities to ship cheap solar panels worldwide to power-hungry countries that need the technology, as well as continuing to support environmental initiatives domestically and internationally. [5]
Wind energy, too, has been progressing at an astounding rate in terms of cost effectiveness and technology; in 2018, General Electric, the American corporate giant, rolled out plans to build wind projects off of Martha's Vineyard near Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with a visual reference in Fig. 1, with the GE branded wind turbines. The 6.5 cents per kilowatt-hour ($65 per megawatt hour) average price of the power for the 20-year Massachusetts contracts agreed this summer was actually lower than analysts expected, which is good for the New England region its being built near, since electricity prices there are generally more expensive. [6] As technology advances, we can continue to make these even more efficient and start to phase out some of the more harmful and expensive fossil fuels.
Having done some comparisons among different energy sources, we can now see how natural gas stacks up to the competition. To standardize the units we compare our energy sources together, we will compare them in megawatt-hours of energy. A kilowatt-hour is 1000 joules/sec × 60 sec/min × 60 min which gives us 3.6 × 106 joules, meaning that a megawatt-hour is 3.6 × 109 joules. With one MMBtu, which equals 1.055 × 109 joules noted earlier, of natural gas costing $2.20, this means that one megawatt-hour of energy is roughly equivalent to 3.5 MMBtus of natural gas, coming to $7.70 worth of gas to provide one megawatt-hour of energy. This is considerably cheaper than the alternative sources of energy such as wind, coming in at $65 per megawatt hour, making natural gas considerably more economical. Natural gas also benefits from the fact that it doesn't rely on the elements for its use; if the sun isn't shining, then it isn't possible to generate solar power, which is expensive to store, with a similar situation applying to wind power.
With these two factors together, it makes the decision to convert over sooner rather than later difficult, as gas is very good at what it does and has wide applications (stovetops, established infrastructure, low prices). With gas plants starting to shut down across the nation from some of the nations largest established energy companies, proponents of either side of the movement need to keep in mind that balance is key when weighing options for the future. [1] The long-term vision is mostly sustainable energy, but that doesn't mean current practices are outdated. If anything, it proves that its likely a better idea to wean off of gas more slowly than currently, truly treating it as the low-cost and cleaner bridge to a greener future, and balance risk and advancement of technology accordingly.
© Minku Lee. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.
[1] I. Penn, "It's the No. 1 Power Source, but Natural Gas Faces Headwinds," New York Times, 28 Mar 18.
[2] "U.S. Crude Oil and Natural Gas Proved Reserves, Year-End 2017," U.S. Energy Information Administration, November 2018.
[3] S. Reed, "What's Happening to the Price of Oil?" New York Times, 20 Nov 18.
[4] F. Norris, "Why One Gas Is Cheap and One Isn't," New York Times, 30 Mar 12.
[5] K. Bradsher, "China Looks to Capitalize on Clean Energy as U.S. Retreats," New York Times, 5 Jun 17.
[6] S. Reed, "G.E. Steps Into Europe's Offshore Wind Market," New York Times, 21 Sep 18.
