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| Fig. 1: A map of Bangladesh. (Source: Wikimedia Commons) |
As the impact of climate change becomes better documented and understood by researchers, there is growing awareness of an impending humanitarian crisis caused by climate-based environmental disasters: climate refugees. While the term "climate refugee" is currently not defined or recognized by the 1951 Geneva Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, it has generally been used to mean individuals displaced by worsening environmental conditions. [1] A study conducted by Missirian and Schlenker indicated that deviations from a "moderate optimum" temperature for agriculture of approximately 20℃ led to an increase in asylum applications, implying a correlation between environmental change and mass migration. Considering current climate change projections, Missirian and Schlenker predict an increase in asylum applications by 28% by the end of the century. [2]
In 2016, the United Nations refused to grant legal protections to climate refugees in its Global Compact for Migration in 2016 due to myriad bureaucratic and political factors. Firstly, individuals fleeing slow-onset disasters, such as rising sea levels, may be difficult to identify as climate refugees as opposed to individuals displaced after acute emergencies. Secondly, the rise of xenophobia and nationalism in both the United States and Europe have led to a toxic political atmosphere where any discussions concerning refugees has become fraught. Tragically, while international bodies hesitate to acknowledge or provide aid to climate refugees, approximately 24 million people worldwide are uprooted due to environmental calamities each year. [1]
An important case-study in the effects of global climate change on mass migration has been Bangladesh, a densely populated nation located to the east of India along the Bay of Bengal (see Fig. 1). Bangladesh sits at the Earth's largest river delta where the Brahmaputra, Ganges and Meghna rivers intersect. Due to the country's unique geography, approximately 41% of its population lives in low-elevation coastal zones (defined as fewer than 10 meters above sea level), regions highly susceptible to natural disasters. [3] Bangladesh experienced severe flooding in 1998 and 2004, and later endured Cyclone Roanu in 2016, which destroyed homes and croplands. [4]
The vulnerability of Bangladesh to natural disasters has been exacerbated by rising sea levels, repeated flooding, and deforestation. Sea surface temperatures at the Bay of Bengal have increased dramatically over recent years, leading to a rapid rise in sea level. In the Himalayas, climate change has been steadily eroding the snowpack, resulting in swollen rivers and worsening floods for the Bangladeshis. India's water management system has aggravated these effects by releasing most of its water during the monsoon season. [5] Some reports estimate that a 1-meter increase in sea level will result in a 20% loss of its current landmass and the displacement of more than 30 million people. [6]
These environmental changes may have devastating effects on the standard of living for Bangladeshis. For some families, the erosion of riverbanks and salinity intrusion have led to contaminated drinking water and destruction of farm land. Public health risks, such as higher incidences of malaria, dengue fever, and diarrhea, may also arise due to increases in global temperature. Displaced populations may migrate to other regions in Bangladesh, including the capital of Dhaka, where populations in the slums has increased by 60% in the past 17 years. [6]
Some studies argue that the apocalyptic narrative of overwhelming numbers of vulnerable, permanently displaced, and impoverished Bangladeshis has been somewhat misleading. They argue that individuals impacted by natural disasters must weigh their current living conditions against the costs of migration, which include "above-average access to human, social, and financial capital". [4] In a quantitative study conducted by Gray and Mueller, they found that flooding has only caused moderate effects on long-term mobility in Bangladesh as compared to non-flood-related crop failure caused by drought. While it may be true that significant barriers to migration might prevent mass movement from disaster-impacted regions of Bangladesh, further research should also be conducted on the living conditions and mental health of those unable or unwilling to leave their homes following environmental devastation.
The case of Bangladesh illustrates the damage that climate change has caused in the present day and highlights the urgency of addressing the needs of climate refugees. International organizations, such as the United Nations, must define the term climate refugee and agree upon a protocol for handling mass migration caused by environmental disasters.
© Hannah Nguyen. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.
[1] T. McDonnell, "The Refugees The World Barely Pays Attention to," NPR, 20 Jun 18.
[2] A. Missirian and W. Schlenker, "Asylum Applications Respond to Temperature Fluctuations," Science 358, 1610 (2017).
[3] K. F. Davis et al., "A Universal Model for Predicting Human Migration Under Climate Change: Examining Future Sea Level Rise in Bangladesh," Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 064030 (2018).
[4] C. L. Gray and V. Mueller, "Natural Disasters and Population Mobility in Bangladesh," Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. (USA) 109, 6000 (2012).
[5] M. Hossain and E. Selvanathan, eds., Climate Change and Growth in Asia (Edward Elgar, 2011).
[6] J. Vidal, "'Boats Pass over Where Our Land Was': Bangladesh's Climate Refugees - Photo Essay," The Guardian, 4 Jan 18.
