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| Fig. 1: Wind turbines are getting significantly larger by the year. The new GE Haliade-X stands at 853 feet tall, or essentially the same height of the Statue of Liberty and Washington Monument stacked on top of each other (Source: Wikimedia Commons) |
While it seems unlikely the current political climate pushes the US toward adoption of renewable energy, economics, engineering advances, and recent offshore wind auctions indicate that wind power may soon be coming to the US east coast in full force. There is admittedly a low bar to clear in order for US wind to gain market share: it made up less than 4% of power generation in 2016. [1] Offshore wind is an even smaller fraction of this; just 30 MW of the 87,534 MW of US wind is generated by offshore farms (all from one farm in Rhode Island). However, there are at last multiple planned offshore wind farms in the next decade, and with technical estimates that the US could feasibly install 86 GW of offshore wind by 2050, one can see the huge potential in the space. [2] A US Energy Department study found that recent auctions in Europe suggest "rapid and steep cost reductions for projects planned for installation in the 2020 to 2025 timeframe". [3] In fact, costs are expected to clear the $70/MwH threshold largely seen as required if offshore wind is to become competitive due to economic, in addition to environmental, reasons. [4]
Multiple states on the eastern seaboard will soon not just be adding megawatts of offshore wind, but rather gigawatts. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) in recent years has awarded leases of offshore wind plots in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina. BOEM has even funded research on the social dynamics of offshore wind, such as how it influences tourism, to show another degree of gravity in how they consider awarding offshore leases. [3] In 2016, Massachusetts Governor Charlie Baker announced a goal to add 1.6 GW (1600 MW) by 2027, and has already awarded a contract for 800 MW of these (Vineyard Wind Project). The 0.4 GW (400 MW) Revolution Wind project off of Rhode Island is helping the state reach its goal of adding 1 GW of offshore wind. BOEM is helping to solicit bids for 2.4 GW of offshore for New York, and a gigantic 3.5 GW for New Jersey; expanding offshore wind are key tenets of administrative policy for governors of both states. New Jersey has also recently seen Ørsted, the Danish wind conglomerate known for building many of the worlds' hallmark wind projects, has opened a US headquarters in Atlantic City, NJ. Virginia energy company Dominion has contracted Ørsted to build 12 MW of offshore wind, amidst its plans to add 3 GW of wind and solar by 2022. Meanwhile, Maryland will have 120 MW of offshore wind through the Skipjack Farm live by 2022.
This bevy of excitement comes at the same time as technology advances in the space. GE recently debuted their mammoth Haliade-X turbine, see Fig. 1, whose 12 MW turbine features a 63% capacity factor, is 45% more powerful than current market offerings, and a 750 MW wind farm of the turbines could power 1 million homes annually. These new turbines are 25 times more powerful than the first offshore wind turbines company produced in the early 1990's. [5] All of this means that conservatively, the US Northeast will power about 10.5 million people by offshore wind in the next decade. This would translate to a 50% increase in US wind power over this time frame, not even accounting for increases in onshore wind. It seems justified to be bullish on US Offshore wind.
© Eli Wachs. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.
[1] J. Cheng, ed., Biomass to Renewable Energy Processes (CRC Press, 2009).
[2] K. P. Thiagarajan et al., "The Massachusetts Research Partnership MRP and the Partnership for Offshore Wind Energy Research in the US Power-US: Implications for the Development of the Offshore Wind Energy Industry in the Commonwealth and the Nation," One Petro OTC-28796-MS, 30 April 2018.
[3] A. D. Mills et al., "Estimating the Value of Offshore Wind Along the United States Eastern Coast," Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 094013 (2018).
[4] W. Musial et al., "2016 Offshore Wind Technologies Market Report," U.S. Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, DOE/GO-102017-5031, August 2017.
[5] S. Reed, "G.E. Steps Into Europe's Offshore Wind Market," New York Times, 21 Sep 18.
