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| Fig. 1: Aerial View of the Metsamor Plant. (Source: Wikimedia Commons) |
Despite predictions of a possible nuclear renaissance due to aligned economic and environmental incentives, nuclear power generation has, over the last ten years, remained relatively constant in the face of shifting economic headwinds and public opinion. [1] As of 2021, IAEA figures show that 32 countries currently operate nuclear reactors. [2] These include large nuclear powers like France, China, and the United States, as well as much smaller countries, which often operate only a handful of older facilities. Countries with limited nuclear footprints nonetheless generate a significant portion of their total energy from nuclear power, making them highly dependent on each reactor. No country, however, is quite as dependent on a single reactor as Armenia, which derives 34.5% of its electricity from its lone facility: the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant. [2]
In 1991, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, the modern Republic of Armenia declared independence, breaking a centuries-long history of Russian domination in the region. [3] In the latter half of the twentieth century, the Soviet presence in Armenia centered on economic development, as it did in the other member states of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance, the USSR's response to the Marshall Plan. [4] The USSR promoted nuclear development in its constituent and satellite states to stave off capitalist influence in underdeveloped economies, and to re-distribute energy production to account for the fact that 90% of the Union's oil, gas, and coal was located in its Asian territory, while three-quarters of its population resided in Europe. [5]
The Metsamor plant (Fig. 1), one of the first to be commissioned by the USSR outside of Russia, is a pressurized-water reactor that became active in 1976, and remains the only nuclear facility in the South Caucasus. [6] Notably, Metsamor was the USSR's first foray into nuclear power in seismically-active regions, though it was nonetheless built without a primary containment structure. Comparable to other VVER-440 models, Metsamor has an installed capacity of 407.5 MW in each reactor; these figures are quite low compared to more recent VVER reactors built over the last two decades, which can produce over 1,000 MW. [6]
Due to their age and limited containment measures, most VVER-440 reactors have been decommissioned or significantly re-designed. In fact, the USSR shut down Metsamor in 1988 after a severe earthquake killed tens of thousands in Northern Armenia, emphasizing the geological instability of the region. [7] Metsamor remained inactive until 1995, when after several years of severe electricity shortages in newly-independent Armenia officials secured Russian assistance in developing a plan for dealing with possible earthquakes, and were granted IAEA approval for continued operation, even beyond the model's designed lifespan. [7] In the years since, further financial and logistical support from Russia has enabled the limited but, by IAEA standards, satisfactory improvement of the plant's efficiency and safety protocols. In 2014, a $270 million Russian loan gave Armenia the means to contract Rosatom for a service-life extension deal that secures Metsamor's continued operation until at least 2026, once again illustrating the extent of Armenia's reliance on nuclear power and Russia. [8]
Even as environmentalists within Armenia and across the globe point to the Armenian government's failure to properly dispose of nuclear waste or even provide a feasible plan for doing so as proof of the potential environmental consequences of Metsamor's operation, arguably the most pressing threat to the reactor is geopolitical instability in the Caucasus. [9] Border skirmishes with Azerbaijan in July 2020 a recent chapter in the decades-long cold war between the two countries that saw economic and diplomatic ties severed in 1991 reached a fever pitch when a spokesperson for Azerbaijan's Ministry of Defense threatened a missile strike on Metsamor, prompting international condemnation. [10] Even here, Russia has sensed opportunity. In January 2021, Russian negotiators brokered a ceasefire that also restored economic ties between the countries, in which gas- rich Azerbaijan committed to sell, for the first time in modern history, to Armenia via Russian distributors. [11] This influx could help wean Armenia off of nuclear energy, even as the country is increasingly brought under Russian influence.
© Francisco Nodarse. The author warrants that the work is the author's own and that Stanford University provided no input other than typesetting and referencing guidelines. The author grants permission to copy, distribute and display this work in unaltered form, with attribution to the author, for noncommercial purposes only. All other rights, including commercial rights, are reserved to the author.
[1] P. Fairley, "Why Don't We Have More Nuclear Power?," Technology Review, 28 May 15.
[2] "IAEA Annual Report 2020," International Atomic Energy Agency, 2020.
[3] B. Keller, "Armenia Yielding Claim on Enclave," The New York Times, 23 Sep 91.
[4] Z. M. Fallenbuchl, "The Council for Mutual Economic Assistance and Eastern Europe," Int. J. 43, No. 1, 106 (Winter 1987-88).
[5] I. S. Zheludev and L.V. Konstantinov, "Nuclear Power in the USSR," IAEA Bull. 22, No. 2, 34 (1980).
[6] J. M. Gleason, "The Decision to Reactivate a First-Generation Soviet Nuclear Power Plant: Conceptual and Decision-Analytic Frameworks," RISK 8, 39 (1997).
[7] F. Hiatt, "Armenia's Nuclear Risk," The Washington Post, 28 May 95.
[8] A. Markarov and V. Davtyan, "Post-Velvet Revolution Armenia's Foreign Policy Challenges," Demokratizatisya 26, 531 (2018).
[9] M. Lavelle and J. Garthwaite, "Is Armenia's Nuclear Plant the World's Most Dangerous?" National Geographic, 14 Apr 11.
[10] B. Cole, "Azerbaijan Threatens Nuclear Strike on Armenian Power Plant," Newsweek, 17 Jul 20.
[11] Z. Agayev, "Armenians to Get Gas via Azerbaijan for First Time in 30 Years," Bloomberg, 17 Mar 21.
